BREX(SH)IT

[happyone]

On 4/18/2019 at 8:56 PM, Foamy T. Squirrel said:

Dammit, I came here to get away from US Politics. All of this sounds frighteningly familiar. Legislators only deal with raising taxes and limiting our freedom, then ignore the issues and focus on the usual crap to get campaign donations. Apparently, the apple does not fall from the tree, mate.

[BBsq69]

So now after 6 weeks the Tory/Labour talks have failed due to:

1. May probably not moving very much

2. Labour Party not being united - I honestly don't know why half the party is insisting on another referendum because we already had one

What these leaves us with is a meaningless election (to an organisation we have promised to leave)) with victory for a populist party claiming to be across the spectrum which is a euphemism for right-wing tax cutting anti-regulation at at time when public spending is about as low as it could be acting in the interests of the rich - yes I said no politics here but that is what will happen - provoking panic from the Tories.

10 days after that election May will possibly giver her deal one final go or we have another set of indicative votes but whatever happens she will probably resign or be forced to resign even if she wins. The Tories have an electoral system for leader which involves MPs nominating candidates and then having a series of run off ballots knocking out the last place each time until there are 2 left who then fight it out for the party members vote. Labour have a higher bar to enter the race but then open it up to the whole membership including union members and those who paid a nominal subscription to vote. Sadly last time some MPs thought it would be only fair to give a Marxist a chance so helped Corbyn over that bar and leading to him becoming leader completely failing to understand why that bar had been put there in the first place. Tory MPs are now trying to work out how they can prevent the egotistical 2 faced buffoon (not political as this is factually what he is) Boris Johnsonfrom being in that top 2 because if he is, he will surely win and the UK will have their own Donald Trump with even less diplomatic skills.

It all happens in early June after a month of NOTHING.
 

[happyone]

I am curious what you Brits think about May's resignation.

[nagachilli2]

1 hour ago, happyone said:

I am curious what you Brits think about May's resignation.

BB will be answer this better than I can, because I'm not really politically minded. I felt for her a bit in the end, because she was in a no win situation with too many hurdles to get over...too many obstacles in her way. Nobody, in that position, could've survived. It was a hard situation because she originally voted to remain in the EU and had to totally change her mind set when she got the leadership. IMO we should never have voted to leave...hence this total fuck up. But she kept thrashing out this deal with minor tweaks here and there. IMO it was never gonna succeed once it failed miserably first vote. She had to go but it scares the shit out of me who will replace her...

[BBsq69]

5 hours ago, happyone said:

I am curious what you Brits think about May's resignation.

Well now this will get political but not too much I hope.

History first because it explains May's problems.

Just like there has always been a hardcore of left-wingers in the Labour Party, there has been a hardcore of right-wingers in the Conservative Party. John Major, a mild mannered man, called them bastards. Virtually all the right and the extreme left want to leave the EU because it is one more level of government which isn't in the way of the idealistic views. Now successive Tory leaders had managed to hold off this wing - they flirted going to the right during their 13 years in opposition but when they elected Cameron it was an attempt to steal the centre ground. UKIP happened - with unclear sources of funding but probably not from residents of the UK  - and fuelled by the discontent due to the crash of 2008 gained momentum. Now the growing right wing of the Tory Party had a natural home in UKIP but only a coupled jumped ship because the Tories were after all in power and they had seats anyway.

Now Cameron was an arrogant gambler who had just about got away with the Scottish referendum. He felt he could stave off UKIP and appease the right of his party - never give into terrorism - he put a commitment for a referendum into the Tory manifesto in 2015:

• the Conservatives would probably not have a majority and therefore he would have to abandon the plan;
• fully believing he would win it anyway.

To everyone's surprise the Conservatives won a majority and then you know what happened next.

So while the leaders of the Brexit campaign stabbed themselves in the front leaving only the inexperienced and under talented Angela Leadsom to stand from that side. Now May had given a speech which was, in the manner of Corbyn, supposed to be her pitch for Remain but what she ended up as saying was the EU was not very good but may be better than the alternative. Leadsom opened with the opinion that May was not fit to lead because she had no children ... The battle lasted one day and as May was the last one standing she won.

May decided to call an election to giver her a mandate. The Conservatives led the polls by 20 points but it quickly became clear May was a massive liability and she decided to hide during the campaign even making Corbyn look statesmanlike. Labour did much better than expected, so well in fact the Tories lost the majority earning the wrath of her own party. This is not a good background to start Brexit negotiations with but she carried on as if nothing had changed - she did lie to The Queen about exactly how the Northern Irish DUP were actually on board. When she made the ill judged appointments of David Davis as Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson as foreign secretary it was briefly thought to be a plan to show her opponents as incompetent. They were and fortunately both resigned but this did not seem to weaken them. The right wing ERG (European Reform Group) now had a lot of power. These were the seeds John Major's bastards had grown.

Before all this a lot of people were behind May but as time wore on the country became frustrated with her strict adherence to the deal. Her only method of persuasion seemed to be promising to end her premiership sooner and sooner. In the end a concrete promise was enough to persuade the leading right wing figures to back her as although they might not have got everything they wanted, the opportunity to control the trade negotiations was too good to turn down as well as a chance for personal ambitions to be realised. But she lost again and after a hiatus during which there was a belated attempt (the Tory chief whip, the guy responsible for party discipline, said it should have happened in 2017 after she lost her majority) to negotiate with the Labour Party, which has its own Brexit problems. These talks collapsed but once more May stubbornly went on with a plan no-one supported - with her imminent departure, members of the ERG had stopped any support they had for her.

To answer your question, it is felt she had an impossible job but she had run out of cards to play so she was just occupying the position. People have sympathy for her  - I do over Brexit as I said many times they should vote for her deal, but not her career in general - but pretty much everybody in the country had lost patience with her inability to move anything on.   

 

 

[happyone]

Thank you BB,

Who is going to take the helm and where does the UK go now as far as BREXIT is concerned--will the UK still leave the EU?  

And what about the trade deal with the US??

[Foamy T. Squirrel]

I can understand why the European Economic Union seemed to work well enough, but I can't understand the political control demanded by the EU. Is that where the problem lies?

And, to my listening experience, May was treated well over here by the general media on my side of the pond, but it was obvious that it wasn't going to be quickly resolved to anyone's satisfaction.

Continue keeping us informed, and thank you for your insights.

[BBsq69]

52 minutes ago, happyone said:

Thank you BB,

Who is going to take the helm and where does the UK go now as far as BREXIT is concerned--will the UK still leave the EU?  

And what about the trade deal with the US??

I feel it is likely to be Boris Johnson. The experts say he has an advantage in a short campaign because he has such a massive public profile although I think that might be irrelevant before the final stage. Most MPs don't want Boris but if he makes the final 2 he is guaranteed.

Also in the running are:

1. Dominic Raab who nobody had heard of until he was made Brexit Secretary, a post he resigned from fairly quickly, when he revealed he had not understood how many goods actually came through Dover - which made people think he lacked basic knowledge;
2. Michael Gove the joint leader of the main Brexit campaign, an ex-journalist and publically well known. He's seen as clever but a bit weaselly and isn't posh like Johnson.
3. Rory Stewart, Eton educated diplomat - seeped in diplomacy, governed part of Iraq and helped set up the Iraqi constitution - and a dark horse but better known than Raab.
4. Angela Leadsom ... hmmm Speaker John Bercow has suggested she's not too bright and I would say that she'd be a worse choice than Boris and that is saying something.
5. Penny Mordaunt, current Secretary for Defence, who is most famous for appearing on a reality TV show in a swimsuit. Has credentials but does appear to be a bit jolly hockey sticks (not a Sarah Palin phrase) but maybe that's unfair.

There are several others but that's probably the top 6 who MPs will narrow down to 2. If you ask me I would favour Stewart then Gove.
 

The UK will leave the EU and possibly with NO DEAL now which sounds crazy to me and many others.

As for a trade deal with the US, clearly Trump would favour Boris. Stewart would be the toughest. 

 

[happyone]

Thank you so much for your insight BB

Knowledge is power 

[BBsq69]

30 minutes ago, Foamy T. Squirrel said:

I can understand why the European Economic Union seemed to work well enough, but I can't understand the political control demanded by the EU. Is that where the problem lies?

Yes that is fair. The UK only ever wanted a trading area but Germany wanted something closer to a federal Europe and apparently UK politicians knew this back in the early 1970s when we voted to join but didn't tell the public. Every time there has been a suggestion of closer union, the UK has flinched.

If I might get personal for a second. I have always been suspicious about the level of the democracy in the EU, a suspicion realised when I saw the level of debate in the European parliament. However the world is an uncertain place and I would prefer to stay close if not in to the EU as these are the closest countries to us not only geographically, but economically and philosophically. I am an internationalist and leaving the EU personally makes me very sad.

The Germans are probably very sad that we are leaving; the French are probably amused. 

[nagachilli2]

1 hour ago, happyone said:

Thank you BB,

Who is going to take the helm and where does the UK go now as far as BREXIT is concerned--will the UK still leave the EU?  

And what about the trade deal with the US??

I vote for BB...😉

[BBsq69]

1 minute ago, nagachilli2 said:

I vote for BB...😉

LOL