BREX(SH)IT

[BBsq69]

The latest position on Brexit is all kinds of contenders are promising to renegotiate with Europe but Europe has said the negotiation has happened. We can either agree to it or go ... or stay ... but they have moved as far as they will go.

Political warning - but only minor: If you had offered this deal to any of the Brexiteers (except the 5% on the very hard right) they would have jumped to take it and indeed all the prominent Brexiteers eventually did but personal ambitions etc. etc. It is all very sad. 

[BBsq69]

UPDATE - Still Nothing Happening

[TBG 150]

But they are still taking your tax Euros/Pounds/Dollars, despite getting absofunkinglutely nothing done at all.

[BBsq69]

On 7/4/2019 at 11:50 PM, TBG 150 said:

But they are still taking your tax Euros/Pounds/Dollars, despite getting absofunkinglutely nothing done at all.

We don't have Euros. However if we rejoin in the future we would not have the option.

[BBsq69]

Very briefly something has opened. Because of Boris's posturing about overriding the parliament, the HoC took a vote to prevent this. I'm not clear if this is binding but it is indicative that he might lose a no confidence vote if he tried it. The irony is of course that the Leave campaign campaigned on the sovereignty of the UK parliament, something it now wants to close so it doesn't have a say. It's like something out of Kafka.
There are no many scenarios which will play out but I have a feeling this will end up even worse than it is. 

[BBsq69]

Well obviously things have changed a bit with a new PM.

This PM was someone who promised leaving the EU would be simple and rosy but more about him in the European thread.

We have a situation in which the PM is threatening to leave with NO DEAL. There NEVER was a vote on this. The referendum did not ask the question and many of the leave backers promised there would be a deal. It is also true that almost no-one in the UK knew what this truly meant as people were winging it. I don't ever remember Ireland being mentioned in the campaign.

So what happens now:

The PM has suggested he might override parliament. Many MPs are affronted at this. There is probably no majority for NO DEAL so they could try to oust Boris from office by a no-confidence vote. Boris has suggested he would ignore such a vote but I am not sure he can. The big problem is that the leader of the opposition who thinks he can then go to The Queen suggesting he becomes PM instead commands no support outside his own party (and not very much from within TBH) so other parties have suggested compromise candidates to form a government of National Unity. I won't say here what I think of the Leader of the Opposition but he is not inclined to compromise leading to disunity in the opponents of NO DEAL

Another card it has been suggested Boris might play is to try to call a General Election thus suspending parliament while Brexit happens. It is said he might even hold it the day after Brexit in order to maximise support for himself (we are not a Presidential democracy but try telling him that). Now clearly that would be manipulation of the electorate to a ridiculous extent and people are trying to argue that simply that would be unconstitutional.

The arithmetic behind a possible election is for the European Politics thread but I hope people stop that possibility. I am not an expert on this but because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, I believe 2/3 of MPs would have to vote for the dissolution of parliament so Boris cannot just call it when he wants - well at least that is what we were told.

Now with only 70 days to go Johnson is visiting Germany and France to persuade them to give in to all his terms. Germany have said they are prepared to negotiate further but it sounds like only a slight rewording rather than a change to the substance of the Irish backstop will be on the table ... WHEREAS Boris wants to change all of it. That was Germany but France quite frankly have finished with us sO I don't expect him to get any support from Macron. 

[happyone]

4 minutes ago, BBsq69 said:

Well obviously things have changed a bit with a new PM.

Thank's for the update BB--

[nagachilli2]

23 hours ago, BBsq69 said:

Well obviously things have changed a bit with a new PM.

This PM was someone who promised leaving the EU would be simple and rosy but more about him in the European thread.

We have a situation in which the PM is threatening to leave with NO DEAL. There NEVER was a vote on this. The referendum did not ask the question and many of the leave backers promised there would be a deal. It is also true that almost no-one in the UK knew what this truly meant as people were winging it. I don't ever remember Ireland being mentioned in the campaign.

So what happens now:

The PM has suggested he might override parliament. Many MPs are affronted at this. There is probably no majority for NO DEAL so they could try to oust Boris from office by a no-confidence vote. Boris has suggested he would ignore such a vote but I am not sure he can. The big problem is that the leader of the opposition who thinks he can then go to The Queen suggesting he becomes PM instead commands no support outside his own party (and not very much from within TBH) so other parties have suggested compromise candidates to form a government of National Unity. I won't say here what I think of the Leader of the Opposition but he is not inclined to compromise leading to disunity in the opponents of NO DEAL

Another card it has been suggested Boris might play is to try to call a General Election thus suspending parliament while Brexit happens. It is said he might even hold it the day after Brexit in order to maximise support for himself (we are not a Presidential democracy but try telling him that). Now clearly that would be manipulation of the electorate to a ridiculous extent and people are trying to argue that simply that would be unconstitutional.

The arithmetic behind a possible election is for the European Politics thread but I hope people stop that possibility. I am not an expert on this but because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, I believe 2/3 of MPs would have to vote for the dissolution of parliament so Boris cannot just call it when he wants - well at least that is what we were told.

Now with only 70 days to go Johnson is visiting Germany and France to persuade them to give in to all his terms. Germany have said they are prepared to negotiate further but it sounds like only a slight rewording rather than a change to the substance of the Irish backstop will be on the table ... WHEREAS Boris wants to change all of it. That was Germany but France quite frankly have finished with us sO I don't expect him to get any support from Macron. 

It's a fucking shambles...and there you have my contribution...😏

[BBsq69]

3 hours ago, nagachilli2 said:

It's a fucking shambles...and there you have my contribution...😏

That sums it up but the reasons are political rather than procedural. Not as problematic as maybe in the US (where there can be a real jam) but things are in place to stop anyone having too much power otherwise we would have left on March 31st with a deal as I think we should. I have mentioned this before but there is a total failure to understand that for the EU any trade deal with UK is of almost no importance compared with the integrity of the EU. Politically you can take a stand but that is the reality.

Osmnishambles

[happyone]

Is not the deal you are talking about leaving with some sort of trade agreement with the EU--or am I mistaken.  

If the UK leaves without a trade deal, they can take the place of the US and trade with China 😏

[BBsq69]

Well with Boris in power - and this isn't political because whatever your position on the spectrum - it has gone crazy.

Closing down parliament - at a crucial time - forced the opposition's hand. Because of the potential risk of No Deal they had to act very fast to try to stop that possibility and so far that is working.

The law orders the PM to ask the EU for an extension of membership if no deal is signed. Boris says that this restricts his negotiating capacity but as he as of yet made no attempt to negotiate people cannot take the risk than he will do anything other than nothing so this is why they feel they need to strap him down.

But this is Boris and that is significant because people believe he is capable of anything. Witness the sacking of 21 of his MPs including 2 former Chancellors (No 2. in the hierarchy of the UK) and Winston Churchill's grandson, the dramatic defection of another and even his own brother quitting.

They have suggested he simply won't take the bill to The Queen to sign. It would be unprecedented (I think) but a possibility. They have suggested he will break the law, although that would seem to mean instant dismissal and an immediate election.

His counter is to call an election. All the opposition parties what an election as soon as possible but while that makes sense for most of the parties, it would seem to be very dangerous for the main one while Brexit is still the only issue.

Because of the Fixed Parliament Law I mentioned above, Boris cannot gain consent for an election, which is what he wants before October 31st since he has a personal stake on his leaving on that date since his entire Party Leadership campaign was based upon that. He might try to put in a new law ignoring the Fixed Parliament Law, which makes it seem stupid, but having sacked his colleagues he would need opposition members to abstain. If it not inconceivable he could win such a vote but not if the opposition wants to stay united. You may have heard Boris saying it is the first time the opposition have refused the chance of a General Election but then that option has only really been there in the last 9 years. The Opposition is in the majority and it would be better for them if they chose the exact time of the next election.

Finally and this is indicative of the insane times, Britain is living in, Boris may call a no-confidence vote in his own government. If he wins then the Opposition have 14 days to form one under a new PM and nobody knows how that will work out. Failing that an election will be called but any new PM who comes out of that would have zero time to negotiate with the EU and we are stuck worse than before.

 

[BBsq69]

On 8/23/2019 at 6:21 PM, happyone said:

Is not the deal you are talking about leaving with some sort of trade agreement with the EU--or am I mistaken.  

If the UK leaves without a trade deal, they can take the place of the US and trade with China 😏

Hong Kong!